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Global Exchange

Exchange Rates for Thursday 17th May 2012

The Euro remains under pressure ahead of expected bullish US data

The Euro is in for a big day today as the single currency looks under pressure once again with a key data release from the US expected to twist the knife in deeper. The problem for the Euro is one of perception. The troubles in Ireland, Greek debt and other peripheral economies trying to tackle large fiscal deficits have dominated the markets despite the strength of the German economy.

Indeed, yesterday's release of phenomenally strong German manufacturing new orders for November did nothing to improve investor sentiment. The surge in orders was driven from foreign demand, demonstrating that at least the German economy is performing well.

Even so, the Euro suffered again against Sterling and the US Dollar, falling below 84p (above £/€ 1.19) against Sterling and plummeting to the lowest level against the US Dollar since September 2010 at €/$ 1.2960.

Sterling also fell against the US Dollar, slipping below £/$ 1.55, following a disappointing purchasing manager index (PMI) from the UK services industries. The actual figure came out at 49.7 for December, down by 3.3 points from November, which is the first time since April 2009 that services PMI has contracted.

The combined PMI's (manufacturing, construction and services) show that UK gross domestic product would have lost roughly 0.3% from the third quarter of 2010. This aneamic growth may lead to speculation over a second recession and ultimately suggestions that the Bank of England will need to extend quantitative easing further.

Today we get an employment update from the Eurozone and also Eurozone third quarter GDP however, it is US December non-farm payrolls today that is expected to keep the pressure on the Euro.

Forecasts suggest a number in the region of 175,000 net jobs being created. If that is accurate, it could prompt a further move lower in €/$ and close to recent lows of the current trading range. 

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