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Global Exchange

Exchange Rates for Saturday 4th July 2015

Is time finally running out for Greece?

Over the weekend the "Troika" (IMF, EU and ECB) seemed to get closer to a deal to support Greece, but it is clear not all in the Eurozone support the deal. Indeed, the Dutch Finance Minister stated that Greece must pay the cost of any delays, suggesting that in some quarters of the Eurozone, Greece is fast running out of time to implement reforms and make a start on privatisation sales.

As hurricane Sandy heads for New York, the decision was taken over the weekend to cancel trading today on all US exchanges. It could cause some extra volatility on the markets, with a lack of volume from the US possibly causing smaller volumes in Europe to create bigger moves than normal. 

The UK faces a quieter week in terms of data releases and surveys, but the figures that are released are likely to be closely scrutinised. UK lending data for September should report still subdued conditions, whilst the CBI distributive trades survey is expected to report sluggish retail volumes growth in October.

Consumer confidence from October may signal a modest improvement in confidence, particularly given the good news on employment seen recently (except for the Ford announcements!).
What will garner the most attention however are the manufacturing and construction PMI's from the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply.

These surveys will hopefully show some pick up, particularly the manufacturing survey, which fell back in September. The UK figures are likely to be a mixed bag of data and surveys and in truth are a sideshow versus the US payrolls release at the end of the week, but for any momentum to be built the UK needs to focus on the jobs growth and GDP figures that point to solid foundations for sustainable, better balanced growth.  

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