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Global Exchange

Exchange Rates for Monday 1st September 2014

Greek seeks another improvement in bailout terms while the UK hopes for an up turn in GDP

Greek politicians are yet again approaching other Eurozone leaders asking for an improvement in their bailout terms however, he has seemingly given no assurances that Greece will be able to meet even more favourable changes to their deficit reduction plans.

Meanwhile, the Greek PM Antonis Samaras is demanding an end to talk about Greece leaving the single currency despite repeated breaches of the terms of the bailouts already received. Were Greece any other country outside of the Euro, it seems almost certain that the bailout monies would have already stopped. Now the EU and Euro are facing a problem of credibility if Greek spending is not checked.

The situation in Greece means German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now having to quell rising discontent about the Euro from the general public so the Greek prime minister can expect an uncomfortable meeting with her today. 

If the Eurozone is to restore confidence in it's currency and it's economy they have to get tough with their most disruptive child. Any further loosening of bailout terms would set a dangerous precedent for other economies approaching the precipice and prove to be overall negative for the Euro as well. 

There has been more comment following the Federal Reserve minutes over the past 24 hours; the President of the St. Louis Fed said that the minutes were "stale" and that the data had improved since then. He also said that a "gigantic" policy response was not needed and expectations may have got ahead of themselves through the summer. However, Chicago Fed Chair Chuck Evans took the other side of the argument in a media interview this morning, arguing that "there's a lot of reasons to do more" to help the US economy.

The main news overnight is once again from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Australian Dollar has become stronger in recent weeks following the grind higher in risk assets post-Draghi. Yesterday we heard from an Australian government official that there were concerns over the strength of the country's mining sector which saw the Australian Dollar slip back.

Today's key data is from the UK with Q2 GDP figures released. Expectations are for a slight improvement in the figure from the initial forecast of -0.7%. Irrespective of any improvement, the prospects of any interest rate hikes over the next 2 years are growing slimmer, and the Bank of England will hope for an ongoing competitive exchange rates to continue to boost export growth.

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